UNDERSTANDING IRGC’S LONG-TERM GOALS IN #IRAQ
“I
announce from here the end and failure and the collapse of the
terrorist state of falsehood and terrorism which the terrorist Da’esh
(ISIS) announced from Mosul,” the Iraqi Prime Minister declared on state
television recently.Following a three-year long blitz, Iraqi forces
with the support of the international coalition, have now defeated ISIS
in Mosul, despite all challenges and sectarian disputes.
But
the defeat of ISIS has created a vacuum and there are some hard
questions about Shi’ite militias such as the People Mobilization Units
(PMU) that must be answered. This is particularly important because the
PMU was established because of the sectarian divisions in Iraq.
But
what role will the PMU play in the future of Iraq? Who will control and
command the PMU? It is a known fact that some Shi’ite militant groups
in Iraq – such as the Kata’ib Hezbollah, Badr Organization and Asa’ib
Ahl al-Haq – are supported by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
(IRGC).
Thus,
it is not surprising that these militias pursue IRGC’s goals and depend
on Tehran for their financial and military supplies. It is worth
pointing out that a few days ago, the commander of IRGC’s Quds Force,
Qasem Soleimani, said that the IRGC “had been working around the clock
to arm the PMU” after its establishment.
This
makes them under command of the IRGC’s Quds Force. Apart from financial
affiliation and weapons, these groups have indicated that they believe
in and are loyal to the Iranian regime’s ideology of Khomeinism who was
the flagbearer of “the path to Quds (Jerusalem) goes through Karbala”.
In
2014, a Reuters report said that “Asaib and Kata’ib Hezbollah, who have
sent fighters to Syria to defend Shii’te shrines ... recognize #Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei as their spiritual leader.”
Direct dependence on Tehran
Despite
this direct dependence on Tehran, the PMU has been incorporated in
Iraq’s armed forces. Muqtada al-Sadr, an influential Shii’te cleric who
Lead one of the PMU's groups, expressed his concern with this
development in Iraq in an interview and said, “I can see that Iraq will
be under the control of militia groups.”
He
then demanded that security should be exclusively under the control of
Iraqi army. The Iranian regime has long sought to create a safe corridor
from Iran to Lebanon. Consequently, the existence of a domestic
paramilitary force parallel to the traditional army in Iraq is crucial
for the IRGC and Tehran’s plan for future of that country.
Due
to the growing demand in the US Congress and the White House
contemplating to designate the entire IRGC as a Foreign Terrorist
Organization, the Iranian authorities, need a heavily-armed paramilitary
force, such as the PMU, to keep the corridor safe and to achieve their
goals in Iraq.
This
is because the successful terror designation of the IRGC will limit the
Iraqi government’s ability to cooperate and provide facilities to the
Iranian regime. Hence at this stage after the defeat of ISIS, it is only
the regime in Tehran who will profit and rip the benefits of the PMU’s
existence.
In
addition, the existence of a parallel paramilitary force with an
extreme Shi’ite ideology will undermine the country’s constitution, as
this militia will follow the politicians who support it rather than the
country’s constitution or the government.
Replicating Hezbollah
In this case, the Iranian regime is trying to replicate its creation of #Hezbollah in #Lebanon and
strives to establish a similarly trustworthy paramilitary force in Iraq
in order to take control and dominate the Iraqi politics in favor of
its agenda.
It
is true that there are disagreements among the militia groups, which
form the PMU about the destructive and destabilizing actions of the
IRGC. But the Iranian regime will try to bribe or eliminate any
influential clerics or opposition, if this proves to be necessary.
Another
reason for the Iranian regime increasing its intervention in Iraq today
is the upcoming Iraqi elections. If the Islamic Dawa Party with the
former Iranian-backed PM, Nouri al-Maliki, loses that elections to some
other politicians like the progressive Shi’ite voice Ayad Allawi, the
IRGC’s corridor will be threatened.
Unchallenged,
the commander of IRGC’s Quds Force, Qasem Soleimani will use the PMU to
tilt the upcoming elections in Iraq to Tehran’s favor and secure the
outcome that the regime in Iran prefers.
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