۱۳۹۶ تیر ۲۷, سه‌شنبه

OPINION | Trump recertified the Iran nuclear deal — now what?

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/foreign-policy/342458-opinion-trump-recertified-the-iran-nuclear-deal-now-what#.WW3fIZj8uhA.facebook
President Trump allowed Secretary of State #Rex Tillerson to announce late Monday that Iran is in compliance with the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal. Trump did not want to certify in April or recertify in July but was persuaded on condition his team come back with a new strategy to confront Tehran.
The first draft did not make the cut, reports The New York Times. The second did, and a notice was sent for Congress to continue withholding nuclear-related sanctions against #Iran.
Although it’s a close call, Tillerson’s decision is a mistake. And the Iran policy review should result in stricter enforcement of the Iran deal, renegotiation or additional non-nuclear sanctions imposed on #Tehran for its ballistic missile testing as well as its state sponsored international terrorism.
Background
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Under U.S. law, the Department of State must notify Congress every 90 days of Iran’s compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal. Monday, July 17, was the deadline. July 18 is a different target date. It is to provide a reportto the Congress on Iran’s overall nuclear behavior and decide whether to waive or reinstitute sanctions lifted under the nuclear deal. The report is due 180 days after Jan. 20, Inauguration Day, i.e., on July 18.
Pros & Cons
Bureaucratic politics play a large role in the pros and cons of whether to comply with these deadlines and whether to remain a party to the nuclear deal as it stands. Reports indicate fierce disagreements among the principals. Ali Vaez, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, expressed the theme of this column. He said on July 14, “Trump decided to keep the deal in place based on a pure cost-benefit calculus,” writing in The National, an online journal based in the Persian Gulf. While Vaez leans toward the pro side of the equation, this writer comes down on the side with those against certification.


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